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We took a look the other week at the fascinating Golden Boot race developing over the first few weeks of the season. But those guys get too much love. What about the folks creating the chances for the goalscorers? Well, weāre giving them their due this morning.
But first, letās have a brief and simplified discussion on how we assess chance creators. The most obvious way to do it is to look at assists. Even that gets complicated, though. Keep in mind, MLS is one of the few leagues in the world that counts āsecondary assists.ā At a base level, thatās a good thing. If you make the pass before the pass that leads to a goal, you get credit for it. You should! You played a key part in creating a goal.
However, it means we group primary assists together with a stat that tells you something a little different. Itās not the same as giving the primary assister statistical credit for scoring a goal, but you can see the thin line weāre walking. So for our purposes today ā evaluating direct chance creation ā weāre going to be looking solely at primary assists.
But primary assists donāt tell the full story, either. What if youāre an elite chance creator, but your teammates are having a string of bad luck putting the ball in the back of the net when the opportunity comes? Youād want credit for creating so many chances despite your terrible teammates. Thatās where a stat like key passes AKA āpasses leading directly to a shotā comes in.
But key passes are also far from the best metric to use. If you slide the ball to your teammate 30 yards out, and they take a pot shot from distance that has no real chance of going in, you technically get credit for creating a shot. Thatās where āexpected assistsā come in. Expected assists (xA) measures how good the shot you created is. That 30-yard pot shot will have a low xA. The surgical through ball that lets your teammate shoot directly in front of goal will have a high xA.
But letās dive deeper. What if your teammate gets that surgical through ball in front of goal and decides to lay it off to another teammate instead of taking a shot? You donāt get any xA then. All because your teammate decided to feel democratic. Thatās where a stat like āexpected threatā comes in. At its core, expected threat (xT) measures where a player is completing passes. If you divide the pitch into a grid of 160 squares, youād be able to point out the squares youāre more likely to score from. The players who work the ball into those squares create a higher xT.
Unfortunately, xT is a little harder to come by. And, like any stat, it also has its flaws. Fortunately, some enterprising folks on the internet will calculate it themselves from time to time. Last week, the Twitter account @MLSStat put together a list of xT leaders. Philadelphia fullback Kai Wagner led the way with Atlanta United fullback Brooks Lennon and reigning MVP Lucho Acosta not too far behind. Take that for what you will.
And take all of these stats individually with a grain of salt. You donāt get the full picture without taking in multiple data points. That includes seeing the player with your own eyes.
Anyway, apologies for the early morning amateur stat class lesson. Letās look at a few of the most productive chance creators so far.
Lucho Acosta - FC Cincinnati
You wonāt be surprised to learn, per FBref, Lucho Acosta is leading the league in expected assists. Through seven starts, heās created 2.8 xA and delivered four primary assists. Even with FC Cincinnatiās struggles in attack, heās still finding a way to make things happen. Now he just needs the rest of the group to step up.
Dante Vanzeir - New York Red Bulls
A perfect example of how stats can be misleading at times. Vanzeir is your current leader in assists with six on the season. Thatās six primary assists too. The next closest player has four. Heās directly contributing to the goals. But how much credit should we really be giving him?
Vanzeir has created a grand total of 1.3 xA. Heās been unsustainably lucky in finding teammates at the exact moment theyāre set to score a goal-of-the-week contender. Donāt put any bets on the Red Bulls striker leading the way in assists at the end of the season.
āāAndrĆ©s GĆ³mez - Real Salt Lake
GĆ³mez is quietly putting up impressive numbers. In six starts, heās generated 2.6 xA and created three assists. Frankly, heās the most surprising player on the list. But the U22 Initiative winger (and one of RSLās most expensive-ever transfers) is finding his way in his second year in the league. He has two goals to go along with those assists. Oh, and did we mention he leads the league in xA per 90 minutes?
Evander - Portland Timbers
Speaking of finding yourself in year two, Evander has been on a tear to start 2024. Heās third in xA and has two assists and four goals on the season. It feels like his assist total may start to rise as Portland integrate new DP Jonathan RodrĆguez and maybe even bring in a third attacking DP sometime soon. Oh, and did we mention heās second in the league in xA per 90 minutes?
Cristian Espinoza - San Jose Earthquakes
Itās totally unsurprising to see Espinoza second in the league in expected assists, even with the Quakes struggles so far. Heās been one of the most underrated players in the league for a while now, and heās basically the only attacking option the Quakes seem to have. Everything flows through him, and thatās led to four primary assists to start the season. Heāll be here at the end of the year, too. San Joseās struggles are not his fault.
Chicho Arango - Real Salt Lake
Unlike Vanzeir, Arango is a striker whose underlying numbers back up his early season assist total. Arango has one primary assist on the year and has created 2.6 xA in eight starts. Itās impressive to see him up there with 10s and wingers like Acosta and Espinoza while still posting excellent goalscoring numbers. Arango is third in the league in expected goals plus expected assists and has six goals on the season.
Luis SuƔrez - Inter Miami
Take everything we just said about Arango and apply it to SuĆ”rez with very minor tweaks. SuĆ”rez has six goals and three primary assists on the season with 2.1 xA created. Heās right behind Arango in xG+xA.
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- Which young players stepped up in Matchday 9?
- Power Rankings.
Good luck out there. Wish someone happy birthday.