Canada beats Jamaica in Nations League
The Canadian men's national team battled to a 2-1 victory at Jamaica Saturday morning in the first leg of their Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals tie.
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Itās the Sunday of Conference Semifinals week. Weāre so close to actual soccer again, yāall. Until then, though, we have to make our way together. Keep each other company like weāre stuck in a car together on a cross-country road trip. Weāre about halfway through that trip which means any actual conversation has died out hours ago, Iāve refused to play your Sarah J. Maas audiobook while Iām driving and one or both of us is annoyed with the way one or both of us is breathing a little too loudly or a little too quietly. All thatās really left is violence. Or we could play some mildly enjoyable car games. Letās play a mildly enjoyable car game.
This particular game involves gambling. Not actual money or anything, but you could potentially tell your MLS-based group chat ā I know you have one in place of actual friends, youāre reading The Daily Kickoff ā that you got a few picks right. Here are your totally ungambleable but potentially still intriguing lines for the Conference Semifinals.
Over/under 0.5 penalties converted in FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union
You wonāt be surprised to learn the Union led the league this year in penalties. It feels like they get one every other game. They officially earn 11 this year. Daniel Gazdag took and converted all 11.
But Cincy and Lucho Acosta werenāt far behind. They finished second in the league with nine penalties earned and eight converted. In a tense and physical game, it wouldnāt be a shock to see someone go to the spot.
Over/under 0.5 goals for Duncan McGuire and Cucho Hernandez combined
With the way Orlando have been playing lately, it almost feels like this should be over/under 0.5 goals for literally anyone. But I have confidence in the Crewās ability to shake the Lions out of their pragmatic shell.
At that point, it feels like it might come down to which one of Cucho Hernandez or Duncan McGuire strikes first. Weāre looking at a matchup between two of the best strikers in the league this season in a game where one goal could be enough. Cucho scored 16 times this year, while McGuire scored 13 times. Cucho averaged 0.61 goals per 90, McGuire averaged 0.84 goals per 90, holy smokes. It doesnāt seem like a bad bet to take the over here. But are you really going to put that much faith in a single game that might be more rigid than your average regular season match?
Over/under 16.5% of his teamās touches in the middle plus attacking third for Hector Herrera
The good folks at American Soccer Analysis have a metric called ātouch percentageā thatās exactly what it sounds like. It measures how often youāre getting on the ball for your team. This year, in the middle and attacking third of the pitch, no one got on the ball more for their team than Hector Herrera. Herrera averaged 17.1% of Houstonās touches in the final two-thirds. Thatās higher than Riqui Puig, Thiago Almada and Bebelo Reynoso. Heās not quite the same creative threat, but everything filters through HH.
Thing is, if I know that, and you know that, then Peter Vermes definitely knows that. Will SKC try to focus on limiting Herreraās time on the ball or will they try to slow down the Dynamo in other ways? Will the Dynamo try to create against a forward-thinking SKC team in a way where Herrera isnāt quite as involved? Thatās for you to decide and for me to sit back and see if it actually mattered in the end while I pretend I knew the answer the whole time.
Over/under 2.5 goals for DĆ©nis Bouanga
Look, Iām just saying, heās really, really good.
Ok, fine, this one might be a little too straightforward. But I needed to soften the blow forā¦
Over/under 0.065 G+ differential for Seattle in the wide areas of the attacking third
ASA has a metric called goals added (G+) that works to be all-encompassing in assessing the effectiveness of on-ball actions for a player or team. Those actions can be broken down by individual areas of the pitch. When looking at the attacking wide areas of the pitch in the final third (including the wide areas of the 18-yard-box AKA āThe Prime Assist Zonesā), Seattle tend to be highly effective. You can see that through the eye test and by the numbers. The Sounders were second in the league in G+ differential in those areas. Basically, they consistently outperformed their opponents when it comes to the effectiveness of their on-ball actions in those areas of the pitch.
Thing is, though, LAFC werenāt far behind. LAFC finished fourth in the league in G+ differential in the wide areas of the attacking third. Seattleās G+ differential in those areas averaged out to 0.14 per 90 while LAFC's came out to 0.07. If youāre taking the over here, youāre saying Seattle had their typical amount of on-ball effectiveness in those areas. If youāre taking the under, youāre saying LAFC limited them there in a way we donāt normally see. Considering how critical those areas are for Seattle, whoever wins this one probably has a decent chance at winning the game.
So, yeah, anyway, Iām slamming Bouanga over 2.5 goals, seems like a sure bet.
- Atlanta United are planning for Thiago Almada to be around in 2024, but "things can change."
- Canada's late win in Jamaica puts a Copa AmƩrica berth within reach.
Good luck out there. Find a way to kill some time.