Your Monday Kickoff: Which teams should be most worried about starting slow?

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Columbus’ CCC run continues on Wednesday

The Columbus Crew head to Monterrey on Wednesday for the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup semifinal. The Crew took a 2-1 lead in leg one. Kickoff is set for 10:15 pm ET.

Some people try to ease into the work week. Here at The Daily Kickoff, we ask, “Why not mix a little Monday morning anxiety with even more anxiety?” It’s gotta be like multiplying two negatives, right? Eventually, we’ll circle back around to positivity.

In that spirit, we’ve decided to look at which of the league’s struggling teams should be most worried about their current station in life. And to do it, we’ve invited the Watchgridometer’s confidence-deficient cousin, the Anxietometer. The Anxietometer looks at a team's current place in the standings and current position on various “we’re back/it’s over” charts, and then checks out their underlying numbers to assess how much anxiety each team should be feeling.

The lower the number out of 100, the more worried they should be.

Portland Timbers

Anxietometer Rating: 19/100

It’s…not great. Per Chris Rifer, the Timbers 3-2 loss to LAFC this weekend made them the first team in MLS history to score multiple goals in five straight games without picking up a win. They’re definitely high on the Watchgridometer right now. But what they’re doing isn’t exactly conducive to winning soccer games.

Per American Soccer Analysis, the Timbers are allowing two goals per game and giving up 1.86 xG allowed per game. The even worse news is what they’re doing in attack doesn’t seem sustainable. They’re averaging 1.9 goals scored per game on 1.18 xG created. All the bad things about the defense seem genuine and the good things about the attack might be fake.

It could be worse, I guess? The Anxietometer doesn’t have them in full panic mode yet. It’s tough to cross that threshold in the first few weeks of a new manager's tenure. Some patience is typically required in what’s basically a rebuilding year.

Chicago Fire FC

Anxietomer Rating: Not found

This is a weird one. We put Chicago’s current rate of 1 point per game into the Anxietomer and added their current rate of 1.1 expected points per game, but it wouldn’t give us a result. It just kept responding with a hand-drawn picture of a man sitting alone while wearing sweatpants that have clearly been worn well past their expiration date. I think it represents apathy. It’s also possible the Anxietometer gained sentience/prescience and is trying to tell me something about my future. Either way, probably not a great sign.

Sporting KC

Anxietometer Rating: 31/100

Right now, SKC are like a slightly improved version of Portland. They’re giving up a ton of goals – 15 in their last six games – while scoring enough of their own to make things interesting. Like Portland, though, it’s not leading to results. SKC have won once in that six-game stretch and have 11 points through 10 games.

The underlying numbers don’t suggest they should be getting any more or any less out of their recent performances. This team seems to be exactly what their record suggests. That might surprise folks, considering how hot they were to end the season last year, but then again, they were outperforming their chance creation numbers by a significant amount.

Seattle Sounders FC

Anxietometer Rating: 40/100

Ok, yeah, if this were a Morale Meter, they would be at a zero out of 100. It’s been as awful a start to the year as anyone could have possibly imagined. We’re in the 1st percentile of outcomes after this weekend’s 2-1 loss to D.C. United. But I’m going to maintain my stance that this team will end up fine in the end for a few reasons.

1. It’s still April of an MLS season, and we’ve seen teams come back from….ok I’m not sure if we’ve seen teams come back from worse, but I’m going to guess we have.
2. They’re too talented not to be ok.
3. It’s Seattle.
4. The underlying numbers still think they’re a pretty decent team.

Right now, Seattle have 0.67 points per game. Their expected points per game rate is 1.45. They’ve been incredibly unlucky to not be a middle-of-the-pack team through their first nine games. If they can regress to the mean a bit with their finishing and stop picking up red cards, they’re probably going to be fine. They might be even more than fine once Pedro de la Vega is back. I’m not prepared to give up on this group, yet.

San Jose Earthquakes

Anxietometer Rating: 15/100

The Quakes are actually underperforming their underlying numbers by an even greater margin than Seattle. The problem is even if they were living up to their expected points projections, they’d still be earning about one point per game. That’s not quite Wooden Spoon worthy. But it’s close.

Nashville SC

Anxietometer Rating: 11/100

Nashville feel particularly dire in a way the other teams here don’t. Obviously, eight points through nine games is bad. And their underlying numbers aren’t much better.

But what makes Nashville special is they’ve had to grin and bear it through some aesthetically displeasing soccer for a while now. It’s tough to complain about boring soccer when you’re getting results. It’s easy to rage about boring soccer when the results stop coming.

FC Dallas

Anxietometer Rating: 10/100

It would have been lower, but then Dallas went out and pulled off a win over Houston this weekend. That’s probably not enough to save their season, but at least they improved their place on the “we’re back/it’s over” chart.

But yeah. Beyond that, there’s not great news. It feels like this team passed a point of no return as soon as they lost Paxton Pomykal for the season. There’s no season-changing regression to the mean coming to save them. They can only save themselves. And that’s a serious uphill battle right now.

Orlando City

Anxietometer Rating: 51/100

They aren’t in a great place on the “we’re back/it’s over” chart after this week’s 2-1 loss to Toronto FC. The Reds scored twice in the final moments of the game to steal a win from an Orlando side that needed similar comebacks to earn points the last few weeks.

However, their underlyings are…well, they’re not great, but they’re something close to mid-range. That’s not where Orlando fans wanted to be after a 63-point season in 2023, but, well, that’s where the underlying numbers suggested they should be last year too.

They’re still a good team that missed their opportunity to become a great one this offseason. There are worse positions to be in. But I’d understand if Orlando fans argue their rating should be worse.

New England Revolution

Anxietometer Rating: 8/100

The Revs are 28th in MLS in points per game. The Revs are 27th in expected points per game. This isn’t getting better any time soon. The only saving grace is they can start looking at this as a rebuilding year under a new coach. Then again, expectations were so much higher than that heading into the season.

• Matt Doyle’s Sunday column is up and good.
• Denis Bouanga saved LAFC with a late golazo.

Good luck out there. Find a home.