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You hear it every year around the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. āItās all about getting hot at the right time.ā Youāll be shocked to learn that most studies of postseasons across sports suggest thatās not actually a thing and āgetting hotā mostly means āgetting lucky over a small sample sizeā or ābeing really good at the sport already.ā
But, just for fun on this quiet Monday morning, letās take āgetting hot at the right timeā at face value. Letās take a look at whoās āgetting hot at the right timeā based on a few different measures of heat and definitions of what āthe right timeā actually is. Maybe it will tell us something about the playoffs to come.
Is the right time the very last steps before the postseason? If so, the obvious pick here is LAFC. Theyād been floundering for a while and entered this last week with just two wins over their last nine games in all competitions. Two huge wins later and suddenly they feel dangerous again.
LAFC destroyed Minnesota in a 5-1 midweek win and followed it up with a 4-2 win in Austin on Saturday. DĆ©nis Bouanga scored five times over those two games and jumped to the top of the Golden Boot presented by Audi standings. And LAFC just need a Decision Day win to secure the second spot in the West.
There are certainly still flaws with this team. Plus itās not entirely clear if they were finally clicking at a truly elite level this week or just beating up on bad teams. But they still have a ton of talent. And Bouanga is the most dangerous player in the league when heās on. If heās getting hot at the right time then so are LAFC. That should frighten everyone in the West.
Maybe a week isnāt enough to convince you that a team is actually hot. How about a month?
Since Sept. 9, Orlando and Portland have been the hottest teams in the league by points per game. Over the course of six games, theyāve both averaged 2.17 points. Trailing behind them are the Red Bulls and Cincinnati with 1.83 points per game and Seattle with 1.8 points per game. Weāll talk more about Orlando in a bit, but we know what a hot Portland and a hot Seattle mean for the rest of the West in the playoffs. Thereās a reason we had that never-ending stretch of Cascadia teams in MLS Cup before last year.
Itās actually even scarier when you look at the underlying numbers. American Soccer Analysisā āExpected Pointsā metric measures how likely a team is to win based on chances created and chances allowed. FC Cincinnati has led the league in expected points over the last month with 2.25 per game, but the Timbers are right behind them with 2.02 and Seattle are right behind them with 1.96. The Crew and Red Bulls arenāt too far behind that. I think itās fair to say the Cascadia teams and New York are as close to āhot at the right timeā as it gets right now.
Thing is, Cincy have been hot at the right time for the entire year in addition to being hot over the last few games. Itās not a bold take to say you have more confidence in the Shield winners to make a playoff run than most other teams, but itās worth repeating how good Cincy have been.
Maybe a month is still too small a sample size for you. What about the entire back half of the season?
Well, you end up finding some familiar faces. You might be surprised, though. Over the last 16 games it hasnāt been FC Cincinnati. Theyāve been second-best with 1.75 points per game. The best team by far over the last 16 games has been Orlando City. The Lions have averaged 2.13 points per game since the middle of June. Cincinnati have averaged 1.75. The gap between Orlando and Cincy in that span is the same as the gap between St. Louis and FC Dallas over the course of this season. The Lions have been excellent.
But have they also been lucky? Their underlying numbers donāt paint the picture of a team thatās been destroying teams game over game. In that 16-game stretch, their expected points numbers have them as the ninth-best team in the league. Thatās pretty good. Itās not elite.
If weāre going by the underlying numbers, Cincy have unsurprisingly been the best team by expected points in that span. The Crew, Red Bulls, LAFC and Houston trail behind them.
So, whoās truly āhot at the right timeā? I honestly donāt know. MLS is weird and maybe the only league in the world where the underlying (and overlying) numbers donāt provide consistent clarity. But what I do know is that FC Cincinnati have been good by every measure over every stretch of the season. Maybe we shouldnāt overthink this and just keep repeating that Cincinnati are the heavy favorite regardless of which teams are playing well heading into the postseason.
- LAFC are "hungry for more" as Bouanga enters supersonic mode.
- Austin failing to make the playoffs in 2023 is "a huge disappointment.ā
- The Galaxy will miss the playoffs after "five seasons worth of challenges."
- Thereās "still a chance" for Minnesota United after Adrian Heathās exit.
- Matt Doyleās Sunday column is up and good.
Good luck out there. Become a great story.